I think it'll matter.
There's 36000+ backers, so potentially there's 36,000+ votes. So if Berlin & HK are within 1%, we don't know if that's 21% & 20% of the total, or 31 & 30%, etc. However, making estimates based on the picture they provided in Update #17, I did a breakdown like this:
Berlin 3200 (21.4%)
Chicago 1700 (11.4%)
Denver 1950 (13%)
Hong Kong 3300 (22.1%)
London 2200 (14.7%)
Seattle 2600 (17.4%)
Total: 14950
So Berlin was at 21.4% and HK was at 22 %. If you were to continue the assumption based on 21 & 22 % of the votes then Berlin would have received around 7600 and HK would have been around 7900. Together that's 15k+. Not even half of all voters. That leaves around 20k+ people still to vote on these 2.
It would be easy to assume that the split would be the same, although it could easily not be the case. What if the second time around someone votes for HK instead of Berlin? Are the backers going to vote for whichever is closer to home, or one they want to see?
Personally I think it'll be close, but not close enough to hide a clear winner. From what I'm reading most people seem to prefer Berlin, a general consensus feeling that HK is too rich or too involved to be lightly covered by the game and would cheapen the feel.
-Ingo